Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.092300 0.105877 0.120648 0.137898 0.157475 0.178988 0.204406
2026-02-08 0.070402 0.087721 0.108054 0.133635 0.164904 0.201826 0.248674
2026-02-15 0.054352 0.073161 0.096864 0.128808 0.170602 0.223286 0.294579
2026-02-22 0.045030 0.065208 0.092389 0.131454 0.185899 0.258793 0.363437
2026-03-01 0.035476 0.055173 0.083481 0.126776 0.190890 0.281806 0.419841
2026-03-08 0.028470 0.047425 0.076412 0.123452 0.197226 0.307650 0.484325
2026-03-15 0.023043 0.041014 0.070187 0.120287 0.203259 0.333955 0.553618
2026-03-22 0.019897 0.037684 0.068211 0.123463 0.219691 0.378535 0.657789
2026-03-29 0.016726 0.033666 0.064361 0.122824 0.229711 0.414264 0.752981
2026-04-05 0.014457 0.030834 0.062080 0.124531 0.244033 0.459232 0.870336
2026-04-12 0.012625 0.028471 0.060233 0.126699 0.259510 0.508363 1.002020
2026-04-19 0.010374 0.024757 0.055065 0.121490 0.260109 0.530349 1.086915
2026-04-26 0.008321 0.021069 0.049363 0.114423 0.256404 0.544692 1.161633
2026-05-03 0.006899 0.018493 0.045545 0.110665 0.258953 0.571870 1.266182
2026-05-10 0.005704 0.016180 0.041852 0.106491 0.259927 0.596061 1.368478
2026-05-17 0.005062 0.015124 0.040919 0.108591 0.275405 0.653446 1.550069
2026-05-24 0.004219 0.013309 0.037736 0.104609 0.276021 0.678286 1.663859
2026-05-31 0.003568 0.011867 0.035205 0.101780 0.278945 0.708830 1.795193
2026-06-07 0.003029 0.010611 0.032905 0.099100 0.281781 0.739600 1.931612
2026-06-14 0.002748 0.010088 0.032556 0.101707 0.298858 0.807360 2.166916
2026-06-21 0.002407 0.009277 0.031187 0.101149 0.307328 0.854880 2.358699
2026-06-28 0.002165 0.008735 0.030522 0.102546 0.321527 0.919225 2.602532
2026-07-05 0.001960 0.008272 0.030011 0.104333 0.337192 0.989732 2.872317